Another GPF article: Energy Crunch
I hope you do not mind this constant stream of articles from GeoPoliticalFutures that I like to reference. If it is too much, please tell me. As I mentioned earlier, I am trying to find the right mix of content for this website.
GPF has a strong analysis department spread all over the world and if I am trying to make sense of something, they often have good apolitical (or minimally political) data summary somewhere.
That's why when I drink my coffee in the morning, and look through my overnight e-mail, anything from GPF deserves a closer look.
With George Friedman, who I typically reference, I really like his well thought out opinion pieces.
With other authors at GPF, I mostly look at the analytical bits, but most of what they produce is worth reading. Naturally, I usually have my own take on things.
This particular piece is looking at the reasons behind the spiking energy prices. There are some nice charts in there, so rather than copy and paste it, I am attaching a PDF.
Look at the charts in their and pay close attention to what they project in terms of energy demand. We are essentially in a cold war of sorts with China and if we are looking to really squeeze them (and we should), energy is definitely where it is at.
In principle, another is manufacturing. There has been a lot said about all of the US manufacturing base being shipped over to China. Some of it is true. Some of it is hyperbole. Some of it is looking at the wrong things.
Traditional labor and material intensive manufacturing always ends up leaving places with high wages and going to places with low wages. China seized on that years ago and, by strongly subsidizing their manufacturing base, created the industrial juggernaut that they currently are. I think their long term power is somewhat overstated and that totalitarian political system can not co-exist with somewhat free market economy for very long, but time will tell. This is probably a conversation for another day.
China is no longer the cheapest place to make stuff, so some of the most labor intensive manufacturing is moving to other places, while China is trying to move upmarket. That requires energy and they are usually in some sort of an energy crunch or on the verge of one. That is an opportunity for countries worried about China's power (and that should be all of them).
Another thing to consider is that arguably the biggest reason China is maintaining it's industrial power is not just the labor costs, but also efficiency. Huge manufacturing regions in China created this incredible infrastructure where everything you need is comparatively nearby and even rather complex manufacturing processes can be accomplished quickly without shipping things back and forth too much.
As companies quietly trying to diversify from China (and there are quite a few of them) learned, that infrastructure is hard to set up from scratch in places like Vietnam and Thailand, for example. That infrastructure, or lack thereof, is also one of the reasons it has become so expensive to manufacture things here in the US.
We sorta had it, then we shipped it all overseas. Rebuilding in the same it used to exist is not feasible without a major decline in the standard of living here.
The big question is whether it is possible to do it more efficiently. Well, if EPA wasn't mucking things up, there is a lot more high tech stuff that we could do here, especially within the semiconductor and biotech world. There are some steps being taken in that direction. It started under Trump, so naturally it is quite possible that the crack team of imbeciles currently occupying the White House might screw it up (elections matter people, especially the one coming in 2022).
How about more traditional manufacturing? That would be hard. Doing that on large scale is a huge infrastructure investment that I just do not see happening and the more boutique stuff never left.
I think there is a real opportunity there with additive manufacturing, commonly known as 3D printing. That brings us back to where I started this conversation: energy.
In principle, all you need is for additive manufacturing is energy and pre-processed, to some degree, raw materials. There is very little waste. You can do very complex shapes. Additional machining is often limited to just cleaning up the surfaces if that.
All you need is a building with power, 3D printing machines, software control systems and the means to feed them with raw material.
If we invest into nuclear power, use hydrocarbons we pull out of the ground to make composites and invest into additive manufacturing, we could see a significant uptick in industrial activity right here.
In many ways, despite the Democrats persistent efforts to screw it up, US is an energy superpower and we should always remember that.