It is Friday, which normally would bring another essay by George Friedman. He did issue one, but I think it is a little weaker than his work normally is. Or at least I agree with it a little less than I normally do. It is well written, as always, and well reasoned, but I am not sure I agree with the entirety of his sentiment. I think he how little Russia's rulers (Putin being the latest) care about Russian casualties. His article is here if you want to take a look for yourself.
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/ukraine-and-the-long-war/
I stumbled onto an article by Niall Ferguson that I think has a more accurate grasp of what's happening at this stage, although it is not clear where it will go from here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-22/niall-ferguson-putin-and-biden-misunderstand-history-in-ukraine-war
I think Niall is being far too nice in his assessment of Biden's administration, but I very much agree with his take on Russia and China. To be fair, I have more insight into Russia than China, so take it for what it is.
I do think that Niall is absolutely correct in that Putin aims to recreate the old Russian empire in some shape or form. He is also correct that until his oil sales are cut off all other economic sanctions have limited utility. They are not useless, but also not as useful as George Friedman thinks.
The bigger problem though is that the US leadership at the moment is weak, incompetent and stupid. The biggest problem is that it is not clear who we will get in 2024.